Prospects for the Bulgarian economy in 2020

At the end of each year, the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry reviews Bulgaria’s position in important and recognized international rankings, which directly reflect the economic reality and future prospects for the development of business environment and society.

Unfortunately, Bulgaria’s downward trend in one of the most detailed World Bank rankings (The Doing Business Report) continues. The country occupies 61^st place for 2020, compared to more than 20 places higher in the ranking just a few years earlier (38^th place in 2016).

The main challenges are not related to worsening of the situation in Bulgaria according to the different criteria, but to our lag behind the global competition and the dynamics with which changes and processes are carried out. This is also the case with the European Commission’s Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), in which our country holds the last 28^th place. It is important to note here that the assessment is not because nothing happens with the introduction of digital technologies, but because the dynamics in digitalization are lagging behind the other EU member states. The DESI assessment is also in line with that of INSEAD (Business school) and their Global Innovation Index, where we fall 3 positions back to 40^th place out of 126 countries in 2019.

However, the trend is not all negative for Bulgaria in the international rankings. There are good ratings as well, or ones in which we keep our place. The positive outlook and BBB rating given to the country by S&P last month is a high praise against the backdrop of a growing global and European economic slowdown. In the middle of the year, Moody’s also change the country’s outlook to a positive one, and Fitch preserved its rating from the previous year.

One of the indices that we have included for the first time in our annual review, namely the one of the World Justice Project reporting on The Rule of Law, also shows an improved position of Bulgaria compared to the previous year – 54^th place out of 126 countries.

With regard to the share of people employed in ICT, Bulgaria can boast with the leading position by share of women employed in the sector – 26.5% compared to the EU average of 17%.

The country maintains its 26^th place in the Vision of Humanity Global Peace Index.

In 2019, we improved our position in the international property rights index of the Property Rights Alliance, going up two places to 61^st position. The two indices reporting on Economic Freedom – those of the Heritage Foundation and The Fraser Institute, show a positive dynamic with up to 10 positions for the country which this year ranks 37^th. An important element in Fraser’s report is that the country is ranked first in terms of the “regulation of credit market” sub-criterion with ten other countries. Positive results are also observed in the Global Competitiveness Index of the World Economic Forum, according to which Bulgaria ranks 49^th in 2019 compared to 51^st place a year earlier.